Two Walmart Canada customers.
$24,311 of Amazon spend that belongs at home.
Both shoppers in this sample are existing Walmart Canada customers. The 456 Amazon orders and $24,311 of spend shown here is wallet share Walmart.ca is currently losing — and most of it sits in Grocery, Health & Personal Care, Beauty, Home & Kitchen, and Pet. Category after category is stuff Walmart.ca already carries. Two shoppers, two different versions of the same share-shift problem.
$19,450 over 5 years, and the volume is still growing.
378 Amazon.ca orders from Feb 2021 to Mar 2026. Annual spend climbed 2021 $3,805 → 2025 $4,789. 55% of this wallet sits in categories Walmart.ca sells — Home & Kitchen, Health & Personal Care, Beauty, Appliances, Pet, Grocery. He orders once every 5 days like clockwork.
Already leaving Amazon. 68% fewer orders in 2025.
78 Amazon.ca orders from Feb 2023 to Oct 2025. 32 orders in 2023, 31 in 2024, then a cliff: 10 in 2025, and a 139-day gap between Dec 17, 2024 and May 5, 2025. Return rate 24.4%. Two-thirds of her wallet is Walmart.ca-relevant — curl hair care, cleaning supplies, appliances, garden.
Heaviest wallet in the sample. Growing every year. Half of it is Walmart-relevant.
Five years of continuous Amazon.ca activity with a spend curve that bends up, not down: $3,805 in 2021 → $4,789 in 2025. Orders land on a roughly 5-day cadence, every month, across every day of the week — not a weekend leisure shopper, not a weekday lunch shopper, just an always-on restocker. 70% of baskets are a single item. The repeat-purchase list is short but telling: vitamins, toothpaste, coffee filters, water filters, dog pee pads — all on predictable intervals. The P0 case: biggest wallet, steadiest pattern, and 55% of spend ($10,804 over 5yr, ~$2.4K over the last 12 months) is in categories Walmart.ca already carries. Cheap to defend and expensive to lose — every month we don't show up on these replenishments, he re-locks the Amazon default.
The SKUs that come back on a calendar.
A narrow list of items re-purchased on predictable intervals. These are where a price-matched subscribe-and-save on Walmart.ca wins every time — if we get the timing right.
- Brondell H2O+ water filter: Feb 15, 2025 (replacement-filter set) and Mar 15, 2026 (full UC300 system) — ~13 months apart.
- Melitta #2 coffee filters: 3 purchases — Nov 2023, Jun 2024, Aug 2025.
- Creatine Monohydrate 425g: 5 purchases 2023 – 2025 across multiple brands, same 425g pack.
- PUREFULLY 5-MTHF folate: 6 purchases 2021 – 2025; latest pair Apr 10 → Oct 10, 2025 (6-month refill).
- Donama cervical pillow: bought Aug 21, 2024 and again Aug 30, 2025 — 12-month pillow-refresh cadence.
Home & Kitchen plus Health is 42% of lifetime Amazon spend.
Home & Kitchen leads at $3,296 (est.); Health & Personal Care is the second-biggest category at $2,457. Both are Walmart.ca aisles where price-parity and same-day shipping already exist.
- Home & Kitchen: 93 items, $3,296 est.
- Health & Personal Care: 76 items, $2,457 est.
- Tools & Home Improvement: 21 items, $1,812 est.
- Appliances: 12 items, $1,014 est. (Braun hand blender, Ninja accessories, fridge filter)
One-time event basket Walmart.ca should have caught.
A single $170.82 basket, five party SKUs in one order — the kind of high-volume, low-margin basket that Walmart.ca carries cheaper per unit than Amazon.ca for anyone who's looked. A predictable play for late-spring barbecue and birthday season.
- 200 linen-feel dessert napkins · $32.99
- 250 clear plastic cups (9oz) · $28.99
- 100 clear plastic cups with gold rim · $25.99
- 360-piece plastic cutlery set · $31.99
- IKEA FANTASTISK paper napkins (100) · $15.60
Dog in the household, still shopping Amazon for pet.
Pet Supplies is only 5% of items ($353 est.) but the signals are specific — CORNMI washable dog pee pads bought three times across 2022 and 2024, a pet-hair roller, a snuffle treat ball ordered Jan 25, 2026. Consumable pet SKUs are Walmart.ca territory; this wallet is up for grabs.
- CORNMI washable dog pee pads: Jan 28, 2022 · Jun 13, 2022 · Mar 18, 2024.
- Snuffle treat ball · Jan 25, 2026 · $19.99.
- Pet hair remover roller · 2024.
No silent month. Largest gap is 35 days, five years ago.
From Feb 2021 to Mar 2026 the longest stretch without an Amazon order is 35 days (Dec 10, 2022 → Jan 14, 2023). Every other month has at least 2 orders. This is a habit, not a set of occasions.
- Avg orders / month: 6.2.
- Two busiest months recently: Aug 2025 (13), Jun 2025 (12).
- Order status: 92.6% clean · 7.4% returned/refunded/cancelled.
536 unique products across 567 items. He's a discoverer.
Only three products bought 3 or more times; 26 bought twice. Almost every order is something new — which makes Amazon's recommendation and search surface the thing to beat, not just price. A Walmart.ca "reorder page" is a weaker hook here than a solid discovery experience for the repeat restock categories.
- 5× Audible Premium Plus subscription (2021–22).
- 3× Alaffia African Black Soap.
- 3× Spooktacular Men's Pilot Halloween costume (one event, Aug–Sep 2024).
Win the replenishment calendar. Everything else follows.
- Stand up a subscribe-and-save for 5 specific SKUs. Brondell H2O+ filter (annual), Melitta #2 filters (8-month), 3M Clinpro toothpaste (2-year), creatine powder (annual), 5-MTHF folate (6-month). Price-match Amazon.ca and add a $5 credit on the first subscription order.
- Intercept every March with a Brondell bundle. He replaced his water filter Mar 15, 2026 — and his undercounter system Feb 15, 2025. Email on March 1 of every year, with a free-shipping upsell to the shower filter ($19.46 Jul 2025) and fridge filter ($29.99 Jul 2025) he also buys.
- Push Home & Kitchen and Appliances on Wednesday. Wednesday is his peak day (70 of 378 orders · 19%). Run the weekly kitchen-gadget + storage refresh on Tuesday night so Wednesday morning opens with a Walmart.ca tab.
- Pre-empt May–June with a party-supplies shelf. He placed a single $170.82 basket on June 7, 2025 — five party SKUs (cups, cutlery, napkins) in one order. Route "entertaining & disposables" into his Walmart.ca home tile starting May 1 each year — per-unit pricing beats Amazon.ca on most of this.
- Reorder page for 26 repeat products. A quiet "Bought this before on Amazon — we have it" widget (not an ad, a utility) on the Walmart.ca home can cover 26 items he's bought 2+ times, from Vic Firth drumsticks to the Donama cervical pillow.
- Own the pet restock. $353 of Pet is small — and Amazon's default is thin here. Push consumables: Earth Rated poop bags, dog pee pads, snuffle treats, at a 10% standing discount for Walmart+ members.
- Test same-day delivery for supplements. Vitamins and protein are a 76-item, $2,457 category for him. Same-day availability on the exact SKUs (creatine, 5-MTHF, ashwagandha, vitamin D) is a real Amazon.ca weakness to press.
Already half-departed from Amazon. The window is now.
Two-and-a-half years of Amazon.ca activity with a clear cliff. 32 orders in 2023, 31 in 2024, 10 in 2025 — and a 139-day silence between Dec 17, 2024 and May 5, 2025. When she re-emerged, the first month was cautious: a DVD, a tube of epoxy, a CPAP battery, a curl-gel refill. The biggest post-gap basket is a $372 Oct 7, 2025 restock covering DevaCurl shampoo + conditioner, RESOLVE pre-treat, silicone freezer molds, iPhone cables, a jump rope, and a Trevor Noah audiobook — a replenishment top-up, not a shopping spree. 24.4% of orders have a return/refund/cancel flag, mostly low-dollar buyer-remorse returns. 65% of her wallet ($3,148 est.) is Walmart.ca-relevant. The P0 case: she's already leaving Amazon on her own. Whichever retailer shows up with her specific replenishment SKUs in the next 90 days owns the next 10 years of her wallet.
139 silent days, then a cautious restart.
Something changed at the end of 2024. The last order before the silence was a 2-ring basket on Dec 17, 2024 ($36.50 total — two matching stainless steel men's rings). The first order after is May 5, 2025, a single DVD of Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One. The months that follow trickle in: one order in June, two in July, none in August. She hasn't rebuilt the habit.
- Last pre-gap order: Dec 17, 2024 · 2 rings · $36.50.
- First post-gap order: May 5, 2025 · 1 DVD.
- Post-gap monthly count: May 4 · Jun 1 · Jul 2 · Aug 0 · Sep 2 · Oct 1.
The biggest post-gap order is a restock, not discovery.
$372 basket, 7 items — and five of them are repeats or near-repeats of items she bought in 2023. Whoever ships these five SKUs reliably owns her restock calendar.
- DevaCurl No-Poo Cleanser — also bought Nov 23, 2023.
- DevaCurl One Condition Decadence Conditioner — also bought Nov 23, 2023.
- RESOLVE Pre-Treat refill 1.8L — carpet-pretreat, restock cadence.
- Souper Cubes silicone freezer molds (2-pack).
- iPhone Lightning cable 3-pack — also bought Nov 23, 2023.
DevaCurl devotee. Exact same two bottles, two years apart.
The No-Poo Cleanser and One Condition Decadence Conditioner pair has appeared in exactly two Amazon baskets: Nov 23, 2023 and Oct 7, 2025. Both times in a large $300+ order. Curl-specialty care is a Walmart.ca gap the Beauty team should close — not with generic conditioner, with DevaCurl and Kinky-Curly specifically.
- 2× DevaCurl No-Poo Original cleanser.
- 2× DevaCurl One Condition Decadence conditioner.
- 2× Kinky-Curly Curl Custard Gel 8oz (Jan 11, 2024 & May 12, 2025).
- 1× Silk bonnet sleep cap, 1× Wahl slicker brush (styling tools).
House projects and a dog. Big-ticket Appliances are the tell.
The basket reads as a homeowner running a household: $599 Breville Smart Oven Air Fryer (Aug 15, 2024), $214 Bissell carpet cleaner (Oct 16, 2023), $169 Bissell upright vacuum (Aug 20, 2024), $298 Airthings radon detector, Moen fixtures, a CPAP battery, mouse traps, bird spikes, garden pillows. Walmart.ca competes on every line here, and often wins on shipping.
- Breville Smart Oven Air Fryer · $598.89 · Aug 15, 2024.
- Bissell SpotClean Pro portable carpet cleaner · $213.57 · Oct 16, 2023.
- Bissell CleanView upright vacuum · $169.49 · Aug 20, 2024.
- Airthings radon detector · $297.69 · Nov 23, 2023.
- Dog: Earth Rated poop bags, Wahl slicker brush.
One in four orders comes back. Reads as buyer's remorse, not theft.
19 of 78 orders carry a return, refund, or cancel flag, but the total refunded-plus-cancelled dollar value is only $5.79 — the rest are returned-after-receipt, low-dollar disappointments. Clothing, patio pillows, outdoor throws. A shopper picking clothes off Amazon thumbnails and then sending them back is a shopper who might try Walmart.ca's in-store returns once and stay.
- Return-flagged categories skew to Clothing, Home & Kitchen, and Patio pillows.
- Full-refund or cancelled spend: $5.79.
- Return-flagged spend (paid then returned): the rest of the 19-order tail.
44% of orders are placed Tue–Thu.
Tuesday 13, Wednesday 17, Thursday 17. Fri + Sat + Sun combined is only 15 orders. She's shopping at work or during the week, not on weekend planning.
- Mid-week (T/W/Th): 47 of 73 dated orders (64%).
- Weekend (F/Sa/Su): 15 orders (21%).
- Active months skew May–Sep across both 2023 and 2024.
Win her before she rebuilds Amazon as the default.
- Ship a DevaCurl + RESOLVE restock bundle inside 30 days. She bought both together Oct 7, 2025. A targeted email/app push offering "Your last DevaCurl pair on Amazon was Oct 7 — free ship + 10% from Walmart.ca this week" beats any generic beauty promo.
- Close the curl-care assortment gap. DevaCurl No-Poo, One Condition Decadence, Kinky-Curly Custard Gel, silk bonnets. If the Beauty team doesn't carry the first two, she'll be forced back to Amazon on her next 6-month cycle.
- Quiet winback: 8-month carpet/cleaning subscription. RESOLVE pre-treat 1.8L is a restock SKU. Pair it with Earth Rated dog poop bags and dishwasher deodorizer pods on a recurring 8-week cart.
- Price-match her three Appliances. Bissell SpotClean, Bissell CleanView, Breville Smart Oven — $982 of Amazon appliance spend over 13 months. A "we match Amazon.ca on these three exact SKUs plus free returns in-store" nudge sits at the right price-tier.
- Catch the Tuesday–Thursday window. 64% of her orders land midweek. Run retargeting on her most-bought categories (Home, Beauty, Cleaning) on Tue morning + Wed morning only — where her impulse cycle actually is.
- Lead with in-store returns, not price. 19 of 78 Amazon orders were returned. Walmart.ca's advantage over Amazon.ca is not price on $12 patio pillows — it's dropping the return at a store 5 minutes away instead of printing a UPS label.
- Surface CPAP supplies and pet consumables. She owns a CPAP (May 12, 2025 battery) and a dog (poop bags, slicker brush). These are low-price, high-cadence restock aisles Amazon.ca isn't obviously better at.
Every play, both shoppers, one table.
Fourteen plays. Eleven are Interception or Winback — the share-shift game. Three are Coverage / Pricing plays that close Walmart.ca catalog gaps this sample revealed.
| Shopper | Signal | Walmart.ca action | Type | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109 · Canada | 5 SKUs bought on known refill cycles (filter, toothpaste, creatine, folate, coffee filters). | Subscribe-and-save at Amazon-parity price, $5 first-order credit. | Interception | P0 |
| 109 · Canada | Brondell water filter bought Feb 15, 2025 and Mar 15, 2026. | March 1 annual email bundle: filter + shower filter + fridge filter. | Interception | P0 |
| 109 · Canada | 70 of 378 Amazon orders land on Wednesday (19%). | Tue-night push for Home & Kitchen + Appliances to own Wed morning. | Coverage | P1 |
| 109 · Canada | $170.82 party-supply basket (5 SKUs in one order), Jun 7, 2025. | May 1 "entertaining & disposables" home-tile seasonal push. | Seasonal | P1 |
| 109 · Canada | 26 products bought 2+ times on Amazon. | "Bought on Amazon — we have it" reorder widget, quiet UX. | Winback | P1 |
| 109 · Canada | $353 pet spend; dog pee pads and snuffle toys are consumables. | Pet-restock push: Earth Rated + pee pads with standing Walmart+ 10%. | Cross-sell | P1 |
| 109 · Canada | 76 Health & Personal Care items ($2,457 est.) · 5 supplements on annual refill. | Same-day delivery on vitamins/protein; lean into speed vs Amazon.ca. | Pricing | P1 |
| 112 · Canada | DevaCurl pair repurchased Oct 7, 2025 (also Nov 23, 2023). | 30-day curl-restock bundle email: DevaCurl + RESOLVE, free ship. | Winback | P0 |
| 112 · Canada | DevaCurl, Kinky-Curly likely absent from Walmart.ca Beauty assortment. | Close curl-specialty catalog gap; stock the four SKUs she re-buys. | Supply | P0 |
| 112 · Canada | Cleaning restockables: RESOLVE, dishwasher deodorizer, poop bags. | 8-week recurring cart: cleaning + pet-consumables bundle. | Winback | P1 |
| 112 · Canada | $982 appliance spend: Breville oven + Bissell vacuum + Bissell spot cleaner. | Price-match pledge on the three exact SKUs with in-store return offer. | Pricing | P1 |
| 112 · Canada | 64% of orders land Tue–Thu midweek. | Retarget only Tue/Wed mornings in Home, Beauty, Cleaning. | Coverage | P1 |
| 112 · Canada | 24.4% Amazon return rate, mostly small-ticket Clothing & Home. | Lead comms with "Drop returns at any Walmart store" — not price. | Winback | P1 |
| 112 · Canada | CPAP battery bought May 2025; dog-consumable basket running. | Surface CPAP supplies + pet consumables when she logs in next. | Cross-sell | P2 |
Two shoppers, one game: stop bleeding wallet on replenishables Walmart.ca already carries.
Both shoppers in this sample are already Walmart Canada customers. They're not prospects — they're wallet Walmart.ca is already losing to Amazon.ca on a weekly basis, in categories Walmart.ca sells. $24,311 of observed Amazon spend with ~57% of it in Grocery, Health & Personal Care, Beauty, Home & Kitchen, Pet, Appliances, Office, and Tools.
The share-shift play splits two ways. Shopper 109 is the steady whale — a five-year habit of once-every-five-days Amazon orders, with a specific replenishment stack (water filters, toothpaste, vitamins, coffee filters, pet consumables) that Walmart.ca can intercept on a calendar. The win is subscribe-and-save on 5–10 exact SKUs at Amazon-parity price, plus a March filter-replacement email on an annual loop.
Shopper 112 is the opposite: 68% fewer Amazon orders in 2025 than 2024, a 139-day silence, and a restock basket in October that telegraphs which SKUs she'll buy next (DevaCurl, RESOLVE, Bissell, Earth Rated). She's already leaving Amazon. The win is being the retailer that shows up with her exact SKUs and in-store returns before she rebuilds the Amazon habit.
- Product-page "Buy it again" carousel that primes the repeat.
- Prime same-day on Home & Kitchen SKUs.
- Long tail of niche items (CPAP parts, specialty hair care, specific brand of coffee filter).
- Subscribe-and-save on ~10 exact SKUs across both shoppers.
- Price-match + in-store return on Appliances ($982 of observed spend in 13 months for Shopper 112 alone).
- Curl-specialty SKUs in Beauty that close a visible catalog gap.
- Grocery + Pet consumables where per-unit economics already favor Walmart.